Title:
DECOMPOSING THE RURAL–URBAN YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT GAP IN TANZANIA: EVIDENCE FROM THE 2024 INTEGRATED LABOUR FORCE SURVEY

Authors:
Charles Fumbo and France A. Shayo, Tanzania

Abstract:
This study examines the rural–urban youth unemployment differential in Tanzania and assesses the extent to which it is associated with differences in observable characteristics. Using data from the 2024 Integrated Labour Force Survey, the study analyses youth aged 15–35 years in Mainland Tanzania. Descriptive statistics, binary logistic regression, and Fairlie decomposition are used to examine the associations of education, vocational training, and gender with unemployment across rural and urban settings. The results show that youth unemployment is higher in urban areas than in rural areas. Education is not significantly associated with unemployment in either setting. Vocational training exhibits a pronounced spatial difference as it is not significantly associated with rural youth unemployment but is strongly and positively associated with urban youth unemployment. Male youth have lower estimated odds of unemployment than female youth in both settings. The Fairlie decomposition shows that observable characteristics account for only 7.7% of the rural–urban unemployment differential, leaving 92.3% unexplained by the characteristics included in the analysis. The findings suggest that individual human capital characteristics alone provide a limited explanation for the spatial unemployment gap. Understanding youth unemployment therefore requires greater attention to labour-market contexts, skills–demand alignment, place-sensitive employment policies, and gender-responsive interventions.